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Menelusuri Ceruk Konflik Rusia-Ukraina
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Menelusuri Ceruk Konflik Rusia-Ukraina

Diskusi Terekam Jejak “Konflik Rusia-Ukraina: Pintu Gerbang Perang Dunia Ketiga?”

Diskusi “Konflik Rusia-Ukraina: Pintu Gerbang Perang Dunia Ketiga?” memberikan suatu insight yang menarik dan mendalam. Diskusi ini melahirkan suatu pertanyaan baru dari konflik kedua negara, Bagaimana akhir “cerita” dari konflik kedua negara ini? Apakah benar-benar menuju kepada perang dunia ketiga, perang berkepanjangan antar kedua negara, atau perdamaian?

Ulasan ini menjadi perhatian penting dalam diskusi. Pembicara pertama adalah Dr. Ahmad Fahrurodji, M. A., seorang Doktor jebolan ilmu sejarah dari Universitas Indonesia, sekaligus seseorang yang pernah mengenyam studi Sejarah Rusia.

Analis Rusia dan Slavia ini membahas konflik Rusia-Ukraina dari sudut pandang sejarah hubungan kedua negara. Pembicara kedua, Roby Rakhmadi, M. Si, seorang analis Hubungan Internasional, membahas konflik Rusia-Ukraina dari sudut pandang keamanan internasional.

Kiev Masa Kini dan Masa Lalu

Para pembicara memiliki sudut pandang yang sedikit berbeda, namun saling melengkapi. Ahmad Fahrurodji mengupas konflik kedua negara dari sudut pandang sejarah. Menurutnya, sejak terjadi peristiwa Euromaiden pada tahun 2014, ketegangan konflik sudah terjadi. Mulai dari Gerakan anti-Rusia, Krimea yang memisahkan  diri dan bergabung dengan Rusia, hingga adanya rencana AS menjadikan Ukraina sebagai anggota NATO.

Oji, sapaannya, mengamati bahwa tujuan penyerangan Rusia ke Ukraina adalah dua hal: demiliterisasi dan denazifikasi. Demiliterisasi berkaitan dengan upaya perluasan NATO di ruang geopolitik bekas Uni Soviet, Ukraina pasca revolusi 2014 (Euromaiden), dan Ukraina yang dijadikan sebagai sandera kepentingan Rusia.

Denazifikasi berkaitan dengan Gerakan ultranasionalis yang ada di sana dan gugatan terhadap rezim Zelensky. Oji berpandangan, Kiev yang menjadi wilayah Ukraina dan diperebutkan saat ini adalah suatu wilayah penting bagi Rusia.

Kiev dianggap sebagai ibu dan kota-kota Rusia. Belum cukup, menurut orang yang mendalami Sejarah Sastra Rusia di tanah Moskow itu, Kiev menjadi wilayah lahirnya peradaban Rusia, mulai dari Kristenisasi Rus’ tahun 988 Masehi hingga jalur perdagangan dari Skandinavia ke Yunani.

Kiev juga pernah menjadi ibukota Rusia pada masa lalu, sehingga Rusia menganggap Ukraina merupakan teritori historisnya. Dalam diskusi tersebut, Oji juga menerangkan dinamika luas wilayah Rusia-Ukraina sejak abad 7 hingga Ukraina pasca-Soviet dengan menampilkan peta wilayah dari masa ke masa.

Sanksi Rusia & Dampak Konflik Rusia-Ukraina

Sementara, Roby melihat konflik Rusia-Ukraina dari sudut pandang keamanan internasional. Ia menyorot dari sisi kekuatan militer Rusia di Ukraina, termasuk juga menyinggung ekonomi-politiknya, serta dampak dari perang kedua negara ini.

Rusia, bagi Roby, merupakan negara yang memiliki pengaruh terhadap Eropa dan dunia. Di Eropa saja, Rusia mampu memberikan ketergantungan atas Eropa melalui sumber daya alamnya. Seperti pada kebutuhan gas alam, Rusia memasok 40% gas alam Eropa. Negara ini bahkan menjadi produsen minyak terbesar ketiga di dunia, dan menjadi pengekspor pupuk terbesar dunia.

Ketika terjadi perang, Sanksi dari barat terhadap Rusia dilakukan, tetapi ini bukan menjadi penghalang bagi Rusia untuk tumbang. Sebab, Rusia telah belajar atas pengalaman sebelumnya ketika terjadi pencaplokan Krimea tahun 2014.

Sejak saat itu, Rusia telah memperkuat neraca keuangannya di bidang eksternal dan internal. Sistem pembayaran domestik juga bergantung pada kartu pembayaran sendiri, bukan pada Visa/Mastercards. Itu sebabnya, Rusia hingga kini masih mampu bertahan walau banyak sanksi yang diperolehnya.

Sementara, Ukraina merupakan negara yang berada di antara Uni Eropa dan Rusia. Roby melihat negara Ukraina sebagai penghasil utama bahan pangan, seperti gandum, biji-bijian, jagung, dan sebagainya. Sektor pangan negara ini termasuk vital, sebab perang kedua negara melahirkan kesulitan ekonomi di negara-negara belahan dunia, termasuk juga berefek kepada naiknya harga minyak goreng.

Konflik Rusia-Ukraina juga mengakibatkan dampak, utamanya di bidang ekonomi. Beberapa di antaranya, Roby menyebutkan, reaksi negatif pasar terindikasi dari penurunan indeks harga saham global serta lonjakan  harga energi yang mengakibatkan inflasi.

Wait And See

Konflik Rusia-Ukraina mengakibatkan terjadi banyak sentimen negatif dari sisi ekonomi, pertahanan, dan politik. Kerentanan ini mengkhawatirkan mengingat ketegangan antara Rusia dan Barat masih terus terjadi. Belum diketahui bagaimana akhir cerita dari konflik kedua negara yang belum benar-benar saling legowo satu sama lain.

Berbicara tentang akhir konflik kedua negara, Roby melihat keadaan tersebut dengan wait and see, menunggu dan melihat keadaan.

Jika Ukraina terus mendapat supply sumber daya perang dari Barat, maka perang ini akan menjadi perang antar kedua negara yang terus berkepanjangan dan tidak tahu sampai kapan berakhir.

Meski ada potensi perang dunia ketiga, Roby sendiri tidak menjamin hal itu benar-benar terjadi. Namun, perang kedua negara ini bisa menjadi sebuah kekhawatiran tersendiri, utamanya bagi Indonesia, lantaran harga-harga akan terus membumbung tinggi mengingat Indonesia banyak mengimpor komoditas.

Sementara dari sudut pandang Oji, ia berharap konflik Rusia-Ukraina dapat diakhiri dengan perundingan yang bisa berefek kepada perdamaian. Rusia sendiri hanya ingin ancaman Barat terhadap dirinya hilang, dan jikalau mungkin memperoleh kembali wilayah Kiev yang merupakan wilayah teritori historisnya. Meski demikian, hal ini tampaknya juga belum ada titik terang.

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